All it takes to pass new regulations at the FCC is a vote in favor from three of the five commissioners, and it’s looking like agency Chairman Julius Genachowski has enough support to pass his net neutrality rules.

Of the five commissioners who’ll be voting on Genachowski’s net neutrality proposal in a few weeks, only Meredith Baker and Robert McDowell came out against the idea in comments filed today.

Mignon Clyburn seemed to be in favor of the plan, saying “clear rules of road are absolutely necessary,” and there’s no way Genachowski will vote against a proposal he himself introduced and has fought so hard for. Michael Copps issued the most carefully-worded statement of the bunch, but so far he’s been a big proponent of Genachowski’s net neutrality push and it’s unlikely he’ll back out now.

Add up the votes and you come up with 3-2 in favor of Genachowski’s plan. Granted, the proposal has yet to be made public (McDowell said Genachowski announced his net neutrality plans “minutes before midnight last night”) so the commissioners could change their minds once they get a look at the details, but that seems unlikely.

Genachowski didn’t lay out anything particularly unexpected in his speech today, and it appears that what he’ll introduce in the coming weeks will propose rules for only the most basic aspects of net neutrality: transparency for consumers; prohibitions on the blocking of lawful applications, services and devices; and a ban on “unreasonable discrimination” of lawful network traffic. More importantly, Genachowski dodged one of the more controversial parts of the issue with the bold claim his proposal has a “sound legal basis” without Title II reclassification. (We’ll see what the courts have to say about that.)

How this all affects the wireless industry is murky, at best. The FCC has seemed receptive over the past few months to the industry’s pitch that spectrum-based broadband Internet services need to be regulated differently than wired services when it comes to net neutrality, and receptivity was reflected in Genachowski’s comments today. He acknowledged the “appropriateness of recognizing differences between fixed and mobile broadband” but stopped short of saying mobile broadband services would be exempt from his proposed transparency and no-blocking rules.

The wireless industry is understandably wary of Genachowski’s proposal, with Verizon Wireless and Sprint both issuing statements that said they’d withhold judgment until all the facts are in. With luck – and a heavy dose of lobbying – the wireless industry could get out of the net neutrality fracas relatively unscathed.

If the commissioners hold steady over the next few weeks, it seems likely that the “basic” net neutrality rules Genachowski has put forth will pass. Where the industry goes from there is anybody’s guess. The regulations could get held up in court, be undermined by Congress, or go through undiluted and force the telecommunications industry to change how it does business. Genachowski is determined to check net neutrality off his to-do list, and it looks like he may finally be able to succeed.