The next 12 months will reveal some certainties, a few maybes and some deeply felt hopes.

Count on more than a few surprises in this new year of 2008. Beyond the unexpected, it will be a year characterized by “learning.” What will we learn?

First, we will learn who wins which block of spectrum in the 700 MHz auction. This means we also will learn whether, going forward, it will be business as usual or if the incumbents will be facing new business models with which they will have to compete.

Next, we will learn the fate of Sprint’s WiMAX service Xohm. We’ll learn if Sprint will continue to build the network out aggressively, sell it off, or spin it off into a separate company. Besides meeting the new Sprint CEO, we’ll see if Dan Hesse will see WiMAX as a distraction or a positive new business opportunity. We will also learn if Intel will step up and put even more money into the Sprint network in order to keep its WiMAX poster child alive and well. And, most importantly, we’ll finally see if Sprint’s WiMAX service performs up to the hype surrounding it. Perhaps we will even discover how many devices there will be that are designed to run on the network and how much they will cost. We also will see whether Intel will deliver its low-power WiMAX chipset designed for ultra mobile devices and notebook computers.

We also will learn the fate of municipal Wi-Fi this year. What will EarthLink do with the systems it has up and running in places such as Anaheim, Calif., and New Orleans? Will Philadelphia’s system ever be built out? We will learn how the systems that were turned on last year are doing in terms of the number of subscribers and the interference and maintenance issues, and we will learn if any more of these systems will be built out in 2008. It also is quite possible that we will learn that I have been correct in my criticism of municipal Wi-Fi networks over the past four years.

We will learn about customer adoption of mobile TV from Verizon and AT&T making use of Qualcomm’s MediaFLO service, as well as the acceptance of 1-way mobile TV systems making use of DVB-H in other parts of the world. We will learn, perhaps the hard way, that we still have not met customers’ requirements for ease of use for data services, and we will begin to learn about network loading as we take the wired Internet into the world of wireless.

We might learn about customers’ acceptance of new types of wireless devices including ultra mobile devices. We might learn more about what is being done in the area of voice and data convergence, and we may even learn about new pricing models for services and/or bandwidth consumption.

2008 definitely will be a year when that which has been previously hyped will have to live up to its hype and prove its worth. And it will be a year when networks with faulty business models are turned off and put into mothballs. It also will be a year when we learn what is in store for the next few years.

NO MORE TRIAL & ERROR
Let’s hope it is also a year when we, as an industry, learn from our previous trials, failures and successes. Let’s hope we learn, once again, that the customer is king and in order to convince customers to truly embrace 3G high-speed data networks, we must give them a reason to do so. And let’s hope that at the end of the year data’s average revenue per user (ARPU) will have risen because of what we learned and implemented.

There will be other lessons along the way as well. We will begin to learn whether the commercial/first responder 700 MHz network will become a viable network and whether the public and commercial partners can work together. We will find out if we can really solve at least a portion of the first responder community’s interoperability issues.

Most of all, it will perhaps be a year when we are able to strike a balance between those who want full open access and those who understand that there must be checks and balances in place if we are to provide services to as many people who want and need them as possible. But most of all, I hope this will be a year when we can learn to work together combining the talents of the several industries that are quickly becoming an integral part of wireless as we continue to deliver more content that is easier to access, either by voice or data.

Seybold heads Andrew Seybold, Inc., which provides consulting, educational and
publishing services. For more information, visit www.andrewseybold.com