So far the FCC has earned $19.4 billion in its ongoing wireless spectrum auction, but activity for the coveted C-blocks is finished, with Verizon the winner and AT&T the loser, an industry consultant believes.

Based on a detailed analysis of the bidding, it’s clear that everything happened the way Verizon hoped it would, said Tom Peters of Wireless Strategy.

For the nationwide C-block, the high bid stands at $4.6 billion from Round 17, widely believed to be from Google.  That bid surpassed the reserve price, therefore requiring whoever wins it to open the spectrum to competition. But in Round 30, the total from all bidders for the regional blocks reached more than $4.7 billion, mostly led by Verizon, thereby knocking out Google.  After that, Verizon and all other players exceeded their FCC bidding eligibility units, so the C-block auction is basically finished, Peters explained.

By also bidding on the D-block, which is the one requiring its winner to build a public safety network, Verizon intentionally lowered the amount that it was required to bid elsewhere to maintain its eligibility for the later rounds, Peters said. So bidding for the D-block was just part of a bigger strategy.  “Nobody can bid on it and it’s going to go back to the FCC,” which will probably re-evaluate and then lower the requirements for that spectrum,” he said, echoing past comments by FCC officials.

“It did not go down the way AT&T planned,” Peters further explained. AT&T had to bid $1.6 billion in the Mississippi Valley region to block Verizon from grabbing all six regions in the continental U.S., after which AT&T didn’t have the flexibility for other bids. The results will ultimately hurt AT&T’s bottom line and help Verizon’s.

All of the remaining action is in the smaller A, B and E blocks. “They’re just kind of dragging on… In A, B, and E, where most of the action is, each round has been mostly consistent. There are some smaller bidders warring over the local licenses.”

The next big question, Peters said, will be how Verizon defines the term “open access.” Verizon likely will use the spectrum for LTE networks. The WiMAX Forum announced today that Mobile WiMAX could also employ such spectrum, but it’s not believed that Verizon has any interest in that.

Bidders are barred by the FCC from commenting until the auction is complete.  That could still be several months away because of the D-Block uncertainty.  Even after that, bidders can’t comment until down-payments are paid for the licenses, carrier representatives explained.

As of 10 a.m. EST today, Round 76 was complete with no significant changes.  Round 77 opens at 11 a.m. EST.