A mere 20 years ago, the information superhighway was more of a dirt road with a network of T1 (1.5Mbps) leased lines connecting NSF-funded regional networks. Over the next decade, this network grew by a factor of more than 6,000 to a backbone of OC-192 (10 Gbps) links.

Showalter: Wi-Fi’s infrastructure continues to expand, delivering on power, range and cost.

Throughout that evolution, many wide area protocols were used – leased lines, frame relay, ATM, SONET – and yet as we pass the 20-year mark the convergence in the WAN is toward Ethernet-based networks. This should not be surprising, because the same dynamic happened in our office networks. (Remember Appletalk, IPX and SNA?)  Ethernet is proliferating of course, and now serves as the nerve center for nearly every computing operation. In hindsight, the reason is clear: Standards-based solutions beat proprietary point solutions.

Today, mobility is the name of the game, and numerous technologies are again dueling it out in various segments of the wireless ecosystem. Until recently, Wi-Fi wasn’t a contender due to its limitations of power, range and cost. For the last several years, a variety of protocols – most notably ZigBee, UWB and Bluetooth – have gotten traction in this emerging space. For applications requiring low power consumption and low cost, ZigBee has been the early winner. For high bandwidth with short range requirements, UWB has been the most attractive choice. And for low power and short range connectivity, especially of multiple devices, Bluetooth has won hands down.

Soon, Wi-Fi will become the protocol of choice for wireless data because you can’t bet against Ethernet. Once again, a high volume, standards-based solution will win; more specifically, 802.11 will be the victor.

POWER
Too power-hungry you say? Not so. Today, innovative startups like GainSpan are proving that a Wi-Fi-enabled sensor can run for up to 10 years on a single AA battery. The advantage of an ultralow power Wi-Fi solution is that Wi-Fi-based networks are being broadly rolled out in the industrial and commercial automation spaces, as well as the home. With this infrastructure in place, sensors can be installed and operational in minutes versus the days and weeks required for non-IP-based solutions such as ZigBee.

RANGE
Too limited by range? Nope. As Wi-Fi has expanded from homes and enterprises to hospitals, universities and factories, connectivity is usually just meters away.  And with companies like Meraki offering low-cost Wi-Fi access, continued expansion of coverage in the future seems inevitable.

COST
Too expensive you think?  Not even. Today 802.11 has become firmly entrenched in high volume applications in both the home and enterprise. As those volumes continue to rise, costs will decrease and innovation will increase, taking the core technology in new directions and allowing it to ride the high volume cost curve. Eye-Fi is a good example of a consumer device company that leverages embedded Wi-Fi in its wireless SD card, enabling photos to automatically be uploaded to a user’s computer and online photo sharing sites. For under $100, users can get 2 GB of memory and a wireless device, all enabled by the scale of Wi-Fi production driving down embedded component costs.

It’s true that Wi-Fi wasn’t originally intended for low power or low cost, and that there are arguably better ways to engineer protocols to meet those needs. That’s why other standards were developed. History has shown however that protocols can win and be adapted to purposes other than those for which they were originally intended. Other standards can live around the edges.

Ethernet, in fact, was originally designed to connect computers together in a local area network. Wide area networks used Frame Relay or ATM. Today, carriers are offering managed Ethernet services over a WAN -- it’s been adapted from a LAN protocol to a WAN protocol, primarily because the proliferation of Ethernet inside the LAN led to an economy of scale for the Ethernet merchant silicon makers, driving down the cost of Ethernet chips and enabling them to move into a neighboring space like WAN.

In much the same way, Wi-Fi will succeed largely due to the existing infrastructure, which continues to expand. Wi-Fi silicon is mass-produced, with a chip in every PC and all home networking equipment as well as many phones, totaling hundreds of millions of units per year. Success relies on scale, and scale is reached through critical mass, which is what Wi-Fi is achieving.

With the limitations of power, range and cost conquered, and with Wi-Fi prevalent in the home, the workplace and public areas, 802.11 is poised to be the de-facto standard for wireless data connectivity. Welcome aboard the untethered Information Superhighway.

Do you agree that 802.11 will end up being the de facto standard? Share your comments by using the comment box below.

Showalter is a general partner with Opus Capital, a venture capital firm investing in early-stage technology companies. Showalter also has held executive positions at Juniper Networks, UUNET and AOL, and worked as an engineer at Bellcore.