CHICAGO - Femtocells have passed through the hype curve typical to new technologies, from hockey stick-shaped growth charts and hyperbolic pronouncements that they're the greatest new thing to a realization that they aren't perfectly suited to every application. The question now is whether the femtocell market is in an outright slump or just going through a more realistic path to adoption.
Femto Forum Chairman Simon Saunders, for one, thinks the femtocell market is actually pretty healthy. As of June, there were 31 commercial femtocell services worldwide, a 60 percent increase over the prior quarter.
"I would not call it sluggish," Femto Forum Chairman Simon Saunders says. "But you should not expect to see femtocells advertised on billboards. It's not necessary to do so – you identify a very precise customer segment and you focus on that."
Of course, some operators are advertising femtocells, like Vodafone in the U.K. But in the United States, femtocells keep a pretty low profile and are usually deployed to compensate for an operator's spotty coverage. Saunders says that contrary to some indications, femtocells are doing quite well, even if they're flying under the radar.
"You have to think of femtocells as a kind of laser-guided missile," Saunders says. "If an operator is using femtocells to improve coverage, they're going to focus that offer on customers that most need it."
The more widespread use of femtocells comes later. For example, SFR in France opened up a free femtocell offer this September after first introducing the devices two years ago.
Once the devices are more omnipresent in a subscriber base, operators can begin playing around with services that leverage femtocell location capabilities – "femtozone" applications. Picture femtocell-based systems that adjust thermostats when residents arrive, integration with home security systems and notifications when children arrive home. Outside the home, femtocells are powering shopper loyalty programs and out-of-the-box initiatives like Telecom Italia's mobile education initiative for an art museum.
"You ain't seen nothing yet from the femtocell world," Saunders says. "Mobile operators are just beginning to realize the potential of the technology, the wider power of small cells."
But for the present, femtocells aren’t exactly ubiquitous – Informa estimates that just 2.3 million 3G femtocells are deployed worldwide. But Informa’s forecast suggests Saunders’ optimism is warranted: The number of femtocells in use around the globe is expected to hit 48 million in 2014.