Whether you see it as a “magical” device prepared to transform the publishing industry or another device that lacks multi-tasking and open source, Apple’s iPad is generating plenty of opinions in the wireless industry.
And in case you were wondering, it’s largely not expected to kill the Kindle. At least, not right away. iSuppli says it likely will be a number of quarters after shipments begin before it’s known whether the product will have a revolutionary impact on the technology world. And it might take a few years before the success of Apple’s content-oriented strategy, with its iTunes store and agreements with content providers, will become apparent.
People who just want to read books will still buy Kindles. “If anything, it has risen the awareness of the Kindle,” says Gerry Purdy, principal analyst at MobileTrax. “I wouldn’t think that the Kindle is going to go out of business by any means for Amazon,” and that’s going to be true for a while, he adds, although Amazon will need to think about not only its recently launched developer program but where the market is going.
In-Stat analyst Stephanie Ethier agrees it won’t kill the Kindle. “In the short term … I don’t see the iPad demolishing Kindle sales,” Ethier says. “Today’s eReader customers are looking primarily for a seamless eBook discovery + purchase + download experience. In other words, they’re buying Kindles to read. Sure, the current generation of eReaders can support a number of other functions, like PIM and other computing functions, but fundamentally, customers are purchasing Kindles and Sony E-readers for a revolutionary reading experience.”
Future generations of eReaders are expected to evolve in such a way that the line between eReaders and tablets will blur substantially, Ethier says. The blur between tablets and eReaders starts within the year and will affect the outlook for future Kindle – and all eReader – sales.
iSuppli puts the iPad in a position somewhere between the smartphone, the eReader and the netbook PC. “The question for Apple is what is the usage case for such a product?” says Jagdish Rebello, senior director and principal analyst at iSuppli. “What does it do that other products don’t do – and what does it have that will make a large number of consumers want to buy the product?”
iSuppli says the killer app for the iPad appears to be delivery and presentation of content. The iPad’s portability, built-in iPod, display, touch interface, wireless connectivity and powerful processor make it ideal for convenient viewing of all types of content, from photos to videos, music, games, e-books and online newspapers.
Others, including those in the Google Android camp, point out that the iPad has some serious flaws – not the least of which is its lack of multi-tasking ability. Hal Steger, vice president of marketing at Funambol, says it’s one thing to not have true multi-tasking on an iPhone, “but for a non-phone device such as the iPad, not being able to have multiple concurrent apps running at the same time is a big limitation. It would seem that Apple will need to rectify this situation as soon as possible.”
He also points out there was no mention of open source and iPad in the same sentence – which wasn’t surprising given Apple’s penchant for control. But if Apple really wanted to steal some of the momentum from Android, it would seem that Apple would at least throw a bone to the open source community, Steger says.
During AT&T’s fourth-quarter earnings call, company executives said they were pleased to be selected as the 3G network provider for the device. AT&T also boasts the largest Wi-Fi network in the United States, and the device is expected to be used in Wi-Fi mode a considerable amount of time – in places like homes, offices, airports and coffee shops.
Like a lot of folks, Purdy says he was surprised Apple didn’t announce anything with Verizon Wireless, a rumored partner leading up to the launch. However, if the exclusivity of the iPhone runs out mid-year as widely rumored, it would make more sense to time an announcement in March or April, or two or three months before an actual product delivery.
An ABI study on media tablets forecasts 4 million devices will be shipped worldwide this year. In-Stat research has found that the largest percentage of eBook owners is spending between $9 and $20 a month on eBook content.
Here’s what some others are saying about the iPad:
- Tapulous plans to aggressively explore how it can take advantage of the form factor. “This is big because it will build on the success of the iPhone and iPod touch, increasing the presence of the iPhone platform in the living room and the bedroom,” says Bart Decrem, CEO of Tapulous, in a statement. “This is part of a big shift from traditional console games aimed at hardcore gamers, and towards casual, social games enjoyed by everyone during their spare minutes.”
- Joe Sipher, chief product and marketing officer at Pinger, says the iPad introduction underscores the “huge opportunity” for building a significant business in the mobile app space. “In 60 days, our market will grow without us having to do a thing. Plus, there's a new rich platform on which we make our texting, drawing and game applications even better,” he says.
- Michael Becker, MMA Global Board vice chair and North America Board vice chair, says the tablet is going to have a significant and positive impact on the practice of mobile marketing and the value generated with it. As devices like the Apple tablet are adopted by consumers, marketers will have extended reach for their programs and more opportunity to easily access Internet services and related mobile applications.
- ABI Research senior analyst Jeff Orr says the main focus of media tablets is entertainment. "Content consumed on laptops and smartphones is increasingly based on Internet services," Orr says. "Home networks and mobile broadband data services make viewing possible without wires. These media tablets could not have come to market any sooner than 2010."
- “What Apple is trying to do with the iPad is to try and create a new market by stimulating new user behavior and new use cases,” says Jagdish Rebello, senior director and principal analyst at iSuppli. “So while the iPad might appear to compete with many existing products in specialized markets like eBooks, tablet PCs and PMP/MP3 players, the success of the product is intrinsically linked to its capability to change consumer behavior.”